Episode 71 - The Cash Flow Clock: Making Time Your Top Retirement Asset with Gary Preisser
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Nicole Garton 00:00:02 Hello and welcome to Your Estate Matters presented by Heritage Trust. Your Estate Matters is a podcast dedicated to everything estates, including building and preserving your legacy. If it's estate related, we'll be talking about it. We're having the conversations today that will help Canadians protect their families, their assets and their legacies tomorrow.
Hello and welcome to your Estate Matters. I'm Nicole Garton. On this podcast, we talk a lot about what happens to wealth at death the wills, the trusts, the taxes, the administration. But every estate plan rests on an assumption. We rarely say out loud that the money will actually have to be there when it's needed. Today we're testing that assumption. Here's the issue in one sentence, two retirees can earn the same average investment returns over 25 years, and one runs out of money, while the other one leaves a comfortable estate simply because their gains and losses arrived in a different order. Advisors call it sequence of returns risk. When markets fall early in your retirement and you're withdrawing at the same time.
Nicole Garton 00:01:10 Those losses can never fully recover, and fear of that outcome is exactly what keeps so many retirees awake at night, and what forces so many families to sell good assets at the worst possible moment. Regular listeners will remember our recent conversation with tax lawyer Amanda Doucette about what happens at the estate level, deemed dispositions, registered accounts, and tax consequences when a plan is not built carefully.
Today's conversation is the other half of that story. What has to be true in the years before you get there? I'm delighted to be joined remotely by Gary Preisser, managing partner of Stonebriar Wealth Advisors. Gary has spent more than two decades in personal and business financial planning, and he's a creator of the Cash Flow Clock, a system that organizes wealth into time based zones so that families are never forced to liquidate assets at the worst possible moment. He's the author of books on timing, tax strategy and retirement income design, and his work has been featured on Entrepreneurs on Fire, Investing.com and Reader's Digest.
Nicole Garton 00:02:13 One note for our audience: Gary practices in the United States, and I'll flag the Canadian specifics as we go, because the principles we're discussing today will apply on both sides of the border.
So Gary, thank you so much for joining us. And we're really lucky. You've got 20 years of experience in financial planning and most of the industry focuses on growing wealth. And that's the exciting part. But you've focused on withdrawals timing and income design, which I guess is the less, you know, quote unquote glamorous side of the business. So what led you to that?
Gary Preisser 00:02:47 Well, my experience in this financial services industry as a whole really started with tax preparation. It was small business consulting. And I found that every financial decision we make, whether it's where we live, where we work, where we vacation, where our kids go to school, what we eat is all based on cash flow. It's based on our cash flow. And yet when I got into this industry 16, 17 years ago with personal finance, personal wealth management, the focus was this piece of paper that got slid across the table that asked questions about feelings.
Gary Preisser 00:03:21 How would you feel if you lost money in the market, or how would you feel if this happened? And that doesn't answer the question I've been asking my entire career: What's the money for? Every dollar that we have is going to be spent by somebody at some point in time, and I tell my clients, it might as well be you because it's your money. But if we don't have a plan for when the money needs to be available, then no matter what growth we're getting, that is not going to function at the time that we need it. And so the only way that assets really have value, right? As I say, assets are not trophies. It's not something to show off. They are tools and their only value is in being utilized or being used. We need to understand the timing for that use, and that's what really gets me excited because that's what adds value to my clients lives.
Nicole Garton 00:04:10 So you framed your work to me as answering this question. So is the money going to be there when it's needed? So how is that fundamentally different from how much the money can grow?
Gary Preisser 00:04:22 A lot of people assume that their money's goal or their money's purpose is to grow, and that is part of it.
Gary Preisser 00:04:29 But the first thing is always about liquidity. The money must be available to do what you need it to do. Right. And I give a quick example, if you tell me that you need money in six months, you need $20,000 for a vacation or repairs on your home, whatever it is. Well, I can't afford to put that in bitcoin. That might give me the most growth in that time, but it's too much volatility for that short a period of time. I also can't put it in a 12 month CD that's not going to have any volatility, but it's not going to be available. It's not going to be liquid when we need it. So we need money that's liquid…the money until we need to use it. That timing is so critical because if we have lots of time then volatility gives us our best chance for that money to grow until we need it. If it's a short amount of time, we still want growth, but we can't expose it to volatility. And so when the money is available, the liquidity has to be the first priority. Then the growth is secondary to that.
Nicole Garton 00:05:28 So let's make sequence of returns risk vivid. So walk us through what can go wrong. So you know someone retires. They need the money. And they've got some losses in the first few years when they're withdrawing compared to someone who maybe has some losses ten years in like what does that look like?
Gary Preisser 00:05:48 It looks very different in one way. It's different because the more losses we have, the more growth we have to get in order to overcome them. If we lose 10%, we don't need 10% to get back to where we started. We need 11. If we lose 20. We need 25. If we lose half, we've got to double. So the earlier that we have those losses, the more destructive they can be. But the bigger issue is especially with retirees, as in the example you gave, they are pulling that money out to use it. They are not just leaving it in there for the next ten years, they are pulling it out. If they lose and they're pulling it out.
Gary Preisser 00:06:26 It's making those losses so much more destructive because they have less money that can grow when those good years come. And so that's why it's so critical, in my view, to take volatility, the possibility of loss out of the equation for money that we need in the short term or even in a medium term.
Nicole Garton 00:06:46 Let's talk about, you've got this framework or solution. So you call it the cash flow clock. And I understand there's time based zones. So tell me about that and how that can prevent that retiree situation that we talked about.
Gary Preisser 00:07:01 Most portfolios, they are visualized like a pie and everything gets sliced up and get some in bonds and some in small cap, mid cap, large cap, international. And they stay pretty static and they're based on age and risk profile. But life is not lived in portfolios, it's not lived in duration of time, it's lived in moments. And that liquidity of our assets is so critical that we create the clock, we use the clock to understand when does this money need to be available.
Gary Preisser 00:07:32 And that comes down to purpose, right? We start with why? Why do you have the money that tells us what the timing is? If we know the timing, then we can decide. It really, actually makes it a lot easier to know what investments to choose. Because again, if we need money in six months, that's very limited options as far as what investments are appropriate for that timing. So in the cash flow clock money that needs to be used in the next five years. The main priority is liquidity. We call that the availability zone or the lazy zone. Lazy because it's not going to keep up with inflation. But I don't care about that because I want my clients to use this money in the next five years. Right? So it's money. It's money market accounts. It's CDs. No volatility, not super high growth. But liquidity is the priority as we get out to years.
Nicole Garton 00:08:24 Or at least some of it. Right. Or at least some of it. Okay. Okay.
Nicole Garton 00:08:28 So a lot of people that go into meet with a financial planner and investment advisor and you ticked the boxes about whether you're sophisticated or not or what your net worth is and what your risk tolerance is. And I think people just tick tick tick. I don't know how much people look at that. And then you have to sign this investment policy statement and then you get these statements quarterly. So what do you do that's different than that?
Gary Preisser 00:08:52 We ask about purpose. We ask, why do we have the money? That tells us the timing of when the money needs to be available? Because to your point, you tick those boxes and you say, you're 65 and you're conservative. What does conservative mean? Conservative to me? Maybe different is going to be different than it is to you, or to a 65 year old or whatever. Everybody's different. Those are subjected terms. They're worthless. But if I ask you, tell me that you have an anniversary coming up and you want to take a special trip in 2027, how much do you want to set aside for that trip? We can be very, very specific, and that allows us to create a portfolio that is customized to our clients, the industry as a whole.
Gary Preisser 00:09:37 Every advisor does things slightly differently based on the personality in their process and the end result. The outcome of that is very, very similar. Most 65 year olds that consider themselves conservative - again, whatever that means - are going to end up in a very similar portfolio. No matter what the advisor does. What our process does differently is we use the same process to discover the timing of when the assets need to be used, and in doing so, we create customized, bespoke, tailored plans that are as perfect as they can be or as appropriate as they can be for that client. We worry about compliance, absolutely, but we're not building portfolios to satisfy compliance. We're building portfolios to satisfy the cash flow needs for each household.
Nicole Garton 00:10:27 Okay. So, the typical 65 year old is put into some sort of balanced fund or investment policy statement. And then like a 2008 hits or, or like a Covid or like the bear markets in 2022. So how is that going to perform differently than what a typical balanced portfolio might do?
Gary Preisser 00:10:49 Great question.
Gary Preisser 00:10:50 We saw this most clearly in 2022. Actually, 2020 was more dramatic. 2008 was super dramatic, but in 2022, the stock market was going down and at the same time interest rates were going up, which means bond funds were losing value as well, and interest rates were going up high enough so that money markets were keeping up with inflation. Inflation was super high. So you're in cash, you're in bonds, you're in stocks, mutual funds. Whatever the case may be, all of them are losing at the same time. That's a huge problem with the cash flow clock. With the way that we design our allocation, our clients’ income does not change because really the first ten years of income need is not subject to volatility. Ten years. That gives them an extraordinary cushion to be able to wait out a 2008 or a 2020 or even a 2022, and without changing their lifestyle. I have retirees who've saved their entire life to get to this point. I want them to use their money, but if they're worried about a 30% loss or worse, then they live in fear constantly.
Gary Preisser 00:12:02 And they they don't feel comfortable spending or using any of it, which defeats the purpose by assigning that purpose to each dollar and by finding the right investment to avoid volatility for that, those first 5 to 10 years, it changes everything and gives our clients permission to actually use their money for what it's for.
Nicole Garton 00:12:21 What does this mean in practice? So say you've got a 65 year old, they've got some pension income, and maybe they want to take out 60,000 a year on top of that to subsidise their living expenses. So are you going to take 5 or 10 years of that and put it in a CD or a money market fund? What are you going to do?
Gary Preisser 00:12:43 Probably not all of it in the money market, but I will put probably two years worth $120,000 in a money market that's completely liquid, plus probably some emergency and some play money, right, for travel or whatever the case may be. The remaining $450,000 ish, whatever that is, to bring us to that $600,000, a ten year need.
Gary Preisser 00:13:04 We may use some index CDs. We may use some fixed index annuities. We may use a variety of products, but the key is no volatility. We still want to get as much growth as possible. I'd still love to get 4 or 5-6% growth, but we cannot expose those assets to volatility. And what that allows us to do is the rest of the portfolio, whatever that is. We can feel very comfortable putting those in growth assets, and we don't have to hedge those growth assets by putting them in a balanced fund with some bonds and some international and some this and some that we can decide for each client what's the best chance for growth. Not in the next six months or ten years, but beyond that. So we can be very specific and focus with our growth to make sure that we are getting the growth that we deserve based on the volatility.
Nicole Garton 00:13:58 How do you manage if something big, unexpected happens, like somebody dies suddenly or there's a major health event, someone has a stroke, or they want to take out $100,000 to help an adult kid going through a divorce.
Nicole Garton 00:14:12 Like, how do you manage that?
Gary Preisser 00:14:13 It's a great question. And what's interesting about that is with our industry, since the only focus is age and risk profile, when any of those things happen and they all happen at different times, right. Nothing would change because there's still a 65 year old that's conservative and so their portfolio is still compliant for us. Everything changes because now their purpose has changed, which means their timing has changed, which means the design of their plan needs to change in order to function. And what I love about that is not only does it say something needs to change, we know exactly what needs to change and how. Because we're being specific about those questions and we know how the timing changes.
Nicole Garton 00:15:02 So we have in Canada our equivalent of retirement funds are called RFPs. And when you turn 71 in Canada, they basically force you to turn it into what's called a RIFF. And there's like mandatory withdrawals. So how do you manage situations like that where there's absolute requirements to take out certain amounts every year?
Gary Preisser 00:15:25 I love that question.
Gary Preisser 00:15:27 In the US they're called RMDs. A similar thing starts at 73. You have to pull money out of your tax deferred accounts whether you want to or not. And yet I see so many retirees that are living off of their non-qualified dividends when they have to pull money out of their retirement accounts, whether they want to or not. That shows a plan that's not designed properly. It's not designed for efficiency. In our case, right. In the example that you give. And the same thing in the United States, since money has to be pulled out, that's money that should be in the availability or stability zones are lazy or safe money, because I do not want to pull my required distributions out of money that just lost 30%. That's the last thing we want to do. So we would design that plan to make sure that any of those forced withdrawals have been accounted for in those first two zones, and that the rest of the money that we wouldn't have to pull out, whether because the government is forcing us to or because simply we choose to in order to fulfill our purpose, the rest of that money is allowed to grow.
Gary Preisser 00:16:34 So we really want to assign the volatility based on the timing. And that's one example of how critical timing really is.
Nicole Garton 00:16:41 So at Heritage Trust, we end up being court-appointed executor, quite often in messy estates. So somebody has died unexpectedly. They're sitting on a whole bunch of capital property. They're a liquid. We end up owing seven figures to this era. Our equivalent of your IRS. We have huge liquidity pressures, often holding real estate. That's difficult to sell. So what I see in practice is the estate planning piece. Often those professionals aren't coordinating with the financial professionals and risk mitigating what happens if their sudden death or incapacity. Like what's your process around that and dealing with those potential scenarios?
Gary Preisser 00:17:28 This is such a huge problem and we see this in our industry all the time. Let's talk even before we get to estate issues. Let's talk about taxes, right? You've got a financial advisor, so-called, who actually is just an investment advisor. And that's all they're talking about. You have a tax advisor, so-called, who's actually just a tax preparer who's looking back at last year, and they are not communicating with each other unless the actual client is being the bridge.
Gary Preisser 00:17:55 You add in the estate issues, the estate attorney having those documents in place. If these three professionals are not communicating clearly, there is no way that any kind of financial plan is going to be effective to any degree. A lot of estate planning comes down to tax planning. The documents are absolutely critical, but they are almost worthless if we don't have the rest of the financial plan in place. And if we don't set proper expectations, if there's any possibility of a huge liquidity need. If either of the spouses passes, That should be incorporated in the financial plan with the financial advisor. That really isn't the estate attorney's responsibility. Now, I would hope the attorney would at least try to reach out to the advisor or educate their clients to reach out to the advisor to make sure that's in place, but it rarely happens on its own. This is why we at Stonebriar, we are holistic wealth management. We talk about taxes. We talk about the investments. We talk about the estate. Not because we want to be attorneys, but because we know how important it is that all of these decisions are coordinated.
Nicole Garton 00:19:07 So there's, you know, someone 60 years old, starting to get ready for retirement, wanting to do planning. Like, what do they do? How do they make sure that their people are talking to each other and dealing with these risks and potential cash flow problems?
Gary Preisser 00:19:23 I think a big part is, unfortunately, we can't rely on professionals to do it on their own. So we need to hold them accountable. And the only way to hold your advisors accountable is to educate yourself as much as possible. You don’t need a degree in finance. You don't need to write a book. You don't need to do all of these things, but educate yourself on some very simple principles. I've got a book on my website called The Differentiators of Wealth. It talks about alpha. Are you outperforming the benchmark? It talks about asset location. Are your assets where they need to be from a tax standpoint to make them most efficient? Those are simple concepts that most advisors don't talk about and most clients don't even know to ask.
Gary Preisser 00:20:04 So educate yourself as much as possible. And secondly, as the saying goes, if you aim at nothing, you will hit it as you get into retirement. We need to understand what is your purpose. It's different for every client, but if the client themselves don't understand that, and often I'll say, what's your purpose for retirement? And they'll give me this glazed over look in their eyes and like, I don't want to run out of money. Well, that's not a very inspiring purpose. Let's be more specific. Let's talk about travel. Let's talk about helping kids. Let's talk about charity. What do you want that to look like? Most people have had their head down. They've been working so hard for retirement, they don't realize that they're here. And as you are approaching, the more you can plan for what is success? What is value to you? Then that plan can be so much more effective.
Nicole Garton 00:20:54 So someone 60, they're getting ready to retire, and with your cash flow plan, they need to start thinking about actual money that they're pulling out.
Nicole Garton 00:21:04 Rather than portfolio construction, what does that look like for your system?
Gary Preisser 00:21:08 The first question is always why do you have the money? What is the money for? And I remind my clients that they tend to resonate or appreciate the ants from Aesop's fable who save food for the winter. My clients have saved really well. What they don't realize is what happens at the end of that fable, and that is that the ants didn't take pictures of the food. They didn't take selfies with it. They didn't celebrate it. They ate the food. The food is meant to be eaten. The assets are meant to be utilized. So the first question should always be why? Why do you have this money? What do you want to use it for? I ask my clients that all the time and often, at least in the beginning, I get this glazed look in their face because they haven't asked themselves that they've been so busy preparing for the future, they don't realize that they're either here or they're on the verge of it.
Gary Preisser 00:21:59 So as well, no matter where they are in that process, if you understand what the money is for, then that plan starts to make sense. It starts to be relevant to their situation and it allows them. It gives them the opportunity to be so much more efficient with their assets than they otherwise could be.
Nicole Garton 00:22:17 So what do you do if you have a 65 year old and God forbid, we have another 2008 event, and there's a big correction and they call you and they say, Gary, sell everything and put me into cash. What do you do?
Gary Preisser 00:22:30 Well, that's always a tricky situation. And we've had those situations at times. But if we have the plan structured properly then that 2008 becomes volatility. And I think a lot of people in our industry, we kind of conflate volatility with risk. Volatility is movement in the market. And that happens. Markets go up. Markets go down. Where risk comes into play is when that volatility collides with a cash flow need or a liquidity need when they have to have that money, when they have to sell out of desperation.
Gary Preisser 00:23:03 As long as we have that ten year cushion, then we never have to really experience risk in that way because we are selling or making adjustments out of being proactive and out of design, as opposed to out of being reactive and out of fear. Now, there may be a reason to get out of the market. Not all 65 year olds necessarily need to have any money in the market if we're experiencing that, but we don't need to overreact to the situation just because we have a poor design. And the problem I have with most portfolios, especially those 60/40 stock bond split portfolios, they may be pulling income from the bonds, but as soon as they pull that money out, what happens? It automatically gets rebalanced. It gets rebalanced to percentages. And that doesn't make sense. That means that they're selling out of their large cap growth just because they needed income. Now if the market's up I'm fine with that. If the market's down 30%, that's the worst thing they can do. But it happens all the time with our cash flow clock.
Gary Preisser 00:24:05 With the functional wealth that we focus on, we never rebalance to percentages. We realign to purpose. Sometimes we have a lot of growth in our portfolios. We have too much volatility assets. And so we shift those. When the market's down, we may take our safe or lazy assets and buy the dip. We can be strategic because we have the proper design in place and we understand the needs of our individual client.
Nicole Garton 00:24:30 So can I ask you a general question about risk?
Gary Preisser 00:24:33 Yes.
Nicole Garton 00:24:34 Is there more risk now? I mean, obviously we've had periods of terrible risk like the Great Depression and 70s price shocks and things like that. But isn't there like a small number of AI companies that are responsible for almost all the growth? And there's increasing global instability, and CEOs of AI companies saying half of jobs could be gone. Like, is there more risk now than there was in the past?
Gary Preisser 00:25:03 I think there's definitely more volatility because things just happen so much faster. Information passes so much faster, and the overreaction to that happens so much quicker as well now.
Gary Preisser 00:25:14 But again, the difference is between volatility and risk due. If we expose all of our portfolio to that volatility, absolutely. We have way too much risk in the portfolio. No matter what your age is. You can't put your emergency fund in Bitcoin. Please don't do that. But if we structure it properly and have enough cushion, then that volatility over time gives us the best chance for growth. The other aspect of it that we need to understand is interest rates are a key aspect to this as well. We saw a lot of people that locked in to fixed index annuities in 2020, with interest rates were all the way down to the bottom. They're locked in for ten years, making less than 1%. That doesn't make any sense. With interest rates higher, if I can lock in to 6% for a longer period of time, that makes sense. So sometimes we take these kind of rules of thumb that apply in general, and we try to put too much stock into those, excuse the pun.
Gary Preisser 00:26:13 And instead we need to understand how do these rules actually apply to us as individuals, to our individual clients, to their households, and what makes the most sense for them based on their purpose and timing?
Nicole Garton 00:26:27 So someone's 60 right now. They're looking ahead to potential retirement. What should they be doing right now?
Gary Preisser 00:26:32 Figuring out what they want their retirement to look like, if they have a pension, if they have Social Security, if they have other income, if they have rental properties, and that's more than their monthly needs, then they can afford to invest very differently than someone that doesn't have those things and is spending more than they have coming in. So we need to understand their income and expenses first. But this is not just about having a budget. This is about utilizing assets to add value. Once we get the necessities taken care of, how much travel do you want to do? How much do you want to give to your kids? How much do you want to give to the community? To charities? You haven't had that conversation yet, and please have that conversation now so you have a clearer picture of what's actually going to add value to you so that, first of all, you have a much better chance of actually achieving that, and secondly, that you can be super efficient in getting there because you can design a plan meant to function to fulfill that purpose, not just a 60/40 stock bond split that's appropriate for anybody else that's in a similar situation.
Nicole Garton 00:27:41 Is there a final message you want to leave people with on how they can better think they're investing in portfolios?
Gary Preisser 00:27:48 The first question I give credit to Simon Sinek: start with why. Think of your money in different terms. Your assets are not trophies. They are tools. They are meant to be used. What do you plan to use your assets for? That will determine when they need to be accessible, when they need to be liquid. And then, anyone can design a plan that provides liquidity. And in the meantime, in that time in between can provide the most efficient growth possible. And so understanding your situation and then taking the time to educate yourself on basic principles that a lot of advisors unfortunately don't talk about. I think our industry says, trust me with your money. Don't pay attention to what we're doing. This is too complicated for you to understand, and that's absolutely not true. Okay, you don't need a finance degree. You don't need to write a book, but you can't understand basic principles about how your money is invested and why, and I think that will make the biggest difference.
Nicole Garton 00:28:47 You know, it's funny, my mom's a retired teacher and, you know, smart lady, you know, not a finance expert. And I, she sometimes words me the emails from her investment advisor. And obviously almost like who it is. But there's a tone that, oh this is very complicated and maybe it's a little bit of a paternal tone and let me tell you what to do. And so she forwards it to her lawyer daughters. And we go reply, but I can see the tone in that you want to be in partnership with your clients. You don't want a paternalistic or a top down type of relationship.
Gary Preisser 00:29:27 I think two media advisors treat the assets they manage as their assets and that is just not true, right? It's our clients. It's their plan. It's their money. It's their purpose. And our job as advisors is really to work in partnership with them to help elevate those assets, to truly fulfill their purpose and add as much value as possible to themselves and to their family.
Gary Preisser 00:29:51 And so if you don't see it that way, if your advisors are not treating you that way, please, that's not the way that it has to be. It's not the way that it should be.
Nicole Garton 00:29:59 So tell us how our listeners can find you, Gary.
Gary Preisser 00:30:01 My website is StonebriarWealthAdvisors.Com or if you don't want to type that out, Stonebriarwa.com. You can access a couple of our ebooks for free there. Give you some information. Help educate yourself a little bit on some of the topics we discussed, or feel free to reach out to me on LinkedIn. Gary Preisser PREISSER. It doesn't look like it, but that's how it's pronounced and I'm happy to reach out and provide as much information as possible.
Nicole Garton 00:30:28 Great. Well, thank you so much, Gary. This has been really interesting and really helpful. And I really appreciate your time and all your wisdom.
Gary Preisser 00:30:33 Thank you so much for the call.
Nicole Garton 00:30:38 Gary. Thank you. This has been a really practical conversation and it fills a gap we hadn't covered on the show.
Nicole Garton 00:30:43 Here's what I hope our listeners take away. A resilient retirement and a resilient estate are the same project viewed from two angles and time is the organizing principle for both. Whenever a dollar is matched to the moment, it will be needed, including the final expenses and taxes your estate will one day face, then neither a market downturn nor a death forces your family to sell good assets at a bad time. That's what it means for money to be there when it's needed. You can find Gary at Stonebriarwealthadvisors.com, where you can also find his books, including the Cash Flow Clock. I'll include his contact details and links in the show notes. And as always, please remember that today's conversation is general education, not individual financial or tax advice. Speak to your own advisors about your situation.
Gary, thank you again for sharing your insight with us. And thank you to our listeners for joining us on Your Estate Matters. If you found this episode helpful, please share it with someone who may benefit from it and join us next time for another practical conversation about estate planning.
Nicole Garton 00:31:45 Estate administration and legacy in Canada. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual, legal, financial, or tax advice. Make sure to consult the advisor of your choice to advise you on your own circumstances. Thank you for joining us for this episode of Your Estate Matters. If you like this podcast, make sure to follow it on your podcast platform of choice. Whether you're planning your own estate or you're acting as executor for somebody else's heritage, trust can help partner with Heritage Trust to protect your family, your assets, and your legacy. If you'd like more information about Heritage Trust, please visit our website at HeritageTrust.com
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